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Inflation Percolation, Fed on Deck

Financial Update: Week of December 16, 2024

Major U.S. equity indexes traded in a mixed fashion last week as investors interpreted fresh November consumer and wholesale pricing inflation data. Strength was featured in tech last week, with Broadcom making headlines on a deal struck with Apple to make chips designed for AI.

With fresh inflation data marking the first down week in four for the S&P 500, it is the perfect time to keep you updated on the latest developments.

For the week ending 12/13/24, the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, the Nasdaq 100 was higher by 0.73%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.82%.

Inflation Picture

Consumer Price Index (CPI): Monthly Increase

The proverbial “last mile” in the inflation fight is proving to be longer than many would like to see. November CPI data was mostly in line with estimates, even as it showed a 0.3% gain for the month, bringing the yearly rate to a rise of 2.7% versus 2.6% in the previous reading.

Stubborn economic segments, including shelter and services, continue to contribute to sticky monthly inflation readings — but at least we see some deceleration in shelter pricing. Although CPI and PPI are still above the Fed’s 2% annual target, markets didn’t seem to mind too much last week, with the December rate cut probabilities rising after the data release.

November Core CPI (removes food and energy from the metric) also rose in line with estimates, showing a yearly 3.3% gain again, equating to a 0.3% monthly rise.

The verdict? Overall, recent monthly data may be construed as inflation being stuck in a range of sorts — certainly exhibiting a pattern of being down from the 2022 highs but still stubbornly above the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%.

While consumer inflation is not super low and continues to have sticky pockets, markets reacted mostly positively, as the probability of a December rate cut was virtually cemented after the data was released.

Producer Price Index (PPI): Simmering

After the mostly in-line CPI print on Wednesday raised the odds of a December rate cut and was received positively by equity markets overall, Friday gave us the November PPI data. Data showed wholesale pricing running hotter than expected in November, showing a monthly acceleration in producer pricing of 0.4%, higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%.

Looking at yearly data, wholesale pricing data for November increased by 3.0%. So, while consumer pricing was warm but in line with expectations, the wholesale pricing data was a bit hot. No victory laps on inflation as a whole just yet!

It’s the food – wholesale food pricing showed an outsized monthly gain that accounted for a large percentage of the gain in goods pricing.

Egg prices are approaching all-time highs made during the pandemic (not this again!). Bird flu was cited as the catalyst.

Treasury Yields Rise

As major stock indexes traded mixed for the week on rather warm overall inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield rose every day last week. While expectations for a rate cut this week from the Fed are clear, rate cut aspirations for 2025 seem to be lessening as inflation is proving stubborn in the last mile.

Ten-year note yields rose by about 7.5 basis points last week, closing near 4.399% last Friday. The psychologically crucial 4.50% level is once again in sight.

Rate Cut Aspirations?

The December Fed meeting is this Wednesday, December 18th, and the markets are showing a 96.0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut as of last week’s market close, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

But the outlook for 2025 is a bit different at this time. The thought process is that inflation has been sticky, resilient, and still above the Fed’s 2% target. Uncertainties about the new presidential administration’s policies and their potential impact on inflation naturally exist.

Some market watchers are talking about two rate cuts in 2025, but it is always difficult to predict what may happen so far in advance. A year is quite a long time in financial markets.

Given the freshness of last week’s inflation data, traders and investors will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-rate decision press conference on Thursday for additional clues or confirmations on the Fed’s mood.

Looking Ahead

Once again, it is all about the Fed this week. Markets have baked in expectations for a 25-basis-point cut, so barring any surprises, attention will be on the policy statement and clues surrounding future Fed inclinations.

Uncertainties surrounding future policies from a new administration exist, and inflation has been percolating. It is not apparent by the recent upward trajectory in most major U.S. stock indexes. Could the markets be a bit too relaxed at this time? Time will tell as we approach the end of the year.

December is historically a good month for stocks (especially during election years), yet we have had a heck of a run year-to-date. Let’s be mindful of any potential pullbacks that could create potential long-term opportunities as we approach year-end and the inauguration in January.

As always, if you have any thoughts about stocks, interest rates, dividends, or anything else, feel free to reach out to me. We can connect, discuss, and exchange ideas.

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Disclosure:
This material provided by Levitate.  Levitate is not affiliated with Valmark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided has been derived from sources believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete analysis of the material discussed, nor does is constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, products or services mentioned.

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Disclosure:
This material provided by Levitate.  Levitate is not affiliated with Valmark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided has been derived from sources believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete analysis of the material discussed, nor does is constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, products or services mentioned.

December 16, 2024 by Grand River Capital

Filed Under: Blog

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